Melanie Stansbury vs. Didi Okpareke polls and 2026 forecast (New Mexico's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Melanie Stansbury (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Stansbury +22.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Stansbury +15.0 and Stansbury +29.6. Incumbent: Melanie Stansbury (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+13.0.
House forecast · How the forecast works