Jordan Herrera vs. Mark Alford polls and 2026 forecast (Missouri's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Mark Alford (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Alford +37.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Alford +44.9 and Alford +30.4. Incumbent: Mark Alford (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+42.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works