Shaun Finnie vs. Steve Toth polls and 2026 forecast (Texas's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Steve Toth (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Toth +14.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Toth +21.3 and Toth +6.9. Polling average: Toth +14.2 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Dan Crenshaw. 2024 presidential result here: R+23.1.
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