Sarah McBride vs. Joseph Arminio polls and 2026 forecast (Delaware's at-large House seat)
Our forecast gives Sarah McBride (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McBride +26.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McBride +19.2 and McBride +33.9. Incumbent: Sarah McBride (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+15.0.
House forecast · How the forecast works