John Croisant vs. Mark Tedford polls and 2026 forecast (Oklahoma's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Mark Tedford (R) a 98% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Tedford +14.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Tedford +23.1 and Tedford +6.5. Incumbent: Kevin Hern. 2024 presidential result here: R+22.0.
House forecast · How the forecast works