Mike McGuire vs. James Gallagher polls and 2026 forecast (California's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Mike McGuire (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McGuire +18.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McGuire +11.5 and McGuire +26.0. Incumbent: James Gallagher (R). 2024 presidential result here: D+12.6.
House forecast · How the forecast works