Jonathan Jackson vs. Christian Maxwell polls and 2026 forecast (Illinois's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Jonathan Jackson (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Jackson +40.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Jackson +33.2 and Jackson +47.8. Incumbent: Jonathan Jackson (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+32.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works