Kelly Thompson vs. Marlin Stutzman polls and 2026 forecast (Indiana's 3rd District)
Our forecast gives Marlin Stutzman (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Stutzman +28.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Stutzman +35.3 and Stutzman +20.8. Incumbent: Marlin Stutzman (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+31.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works