Katy Padilla Stout vs. Brandon Herrera polls and 2026 forecast (Texas's 23rd District)
Our forecast gives Brandon Herrera (R) an 89% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Herrera +8.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Herrera +16.2 and Stout +0.5. Polling average: Herrera +6.5 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Vacant. 2024 presidential result here: R+15.0.
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