Patty Garcia vs. Lupe Castillo polls and 2026 forecast (Illinois's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Patty Garcia (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Garcia +36.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Garcia +28.2 and Garcia +44.9. Incumbent: Chuy García. 2024 presidential result here: D+28.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works