Morgan McGarvey vs. Maria Rodriquez polls and 2026 forecast (Kentucky's 3rd District)
Our forecast gives Morgan McGarvey (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: McGarvey +30.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between McGarvey +23.4 and McGarvey +38.1. Incumbent: Morgan McGarvey (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+19.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works