Michael DeCillis vs. Nicole Malliotakis polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 11th District)
Our forecast gives Nicole Malliotakis (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Malliotakis +19.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Malliotakis +26.9 and Malliotakis +12.2. Incumbent: Nicole Malliotakis (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+24.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works