Joaquin Castro vs. Edgardo Rafael Baez polls and 2026 forecast (Texas's 20th District)
Our forecast gives Joaquin Castro (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Castro +39.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Castro +31.7 and Castro +46.4. Incumbent: Joaquin Castro (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+28.9.
House forecast · How the forecast works