Katy Tyndell vs. Ron Estes polls and 2026 forecast (Kansas's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Ron Estes (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Estes +19.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Estes +27.2 and Estes +12.4. Incumbent: Ron Estes (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+23.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works