Jason Pearce vs. Pat Fallon polls and 2026 forecast (Texas's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Pat Fallon (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Fallon +20.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Fallon +27.6 and Fallon +12.9. Incumbent: Pat Fallon (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+25.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works