Kelly Kirschner vs. Sydney Gruters polls and 2026 forecast (Florida's 16th District)
Our forecast gives Sydney Gruters (R) an 87% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Gruters +6.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Gruters +12.9 and Kirschner +0.9. Polling average: Gruters +5.9 across 2 polls. Incumbent: Vern Buchanan. 2024 presidential result here: R+13.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works