Patrick Halpin vs. Andrew Garbarino polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Andrew Garbarino (R) a 97% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Garbarino +12.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Garbarino +19.5 and Garbarino +4.8. Incumbent: Andrew Garbarino (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+14.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works