Raymond Smith Jr. vs. Greg Murphy polls and 2026 forecast (North Carolina's 3rd District)
Our forecast gives Greg Murphy (R) a 96% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Murphy +9.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Murphy +16.1 and Murphy +3.0. Polling average: Murphy +6.0 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Greg Murphy (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+13.8.
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