Pat Ryan vs. Jacqueline Auringer polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 18th District)
Our forecast gives Pat Ryan (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Ryan +20.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Ryan +14.1 and Ryan +26.5. Polling average: Ryan +17.4 across 2 polls. Incumbent: Pat Ryan (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+3.4.
House forecast · How the forecast works