Micah Lasher vs. Caroline Shinkle polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 12th District)
Our forecast gives Micah Lasher (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Lasher +70.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Lasher +62.7 and Lasher +79.1. Incumbent: Jerry Nadler. 2024 presidential result here: D+64.9.
House forecast · How the forecast works