Sara Jacobs vs. Ricardo Cabrera polls and 2026 forecast (California's 51st District)
Our forecast gives Sara Jacobs (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Jacobs +26.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Jacobs +19.0 and Jacobs +33.5. Incumbent: Sara Jacobs (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+18.8.
House forecast · How the forecast works