Trina Swanson vs. Pete Stauber polls and 2026 forecast (Minnesota's 8th District)
Our forecast gives Pete Stauber (R) a 94% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Stauber +9.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Stauber +16.4 and Stauber +1.6. Incumbent: Pete Stauber (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+14.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works