Adam Smith vs. Doug Basler polls and 2026 forecast (Washington's 9th District)
Our forecast gives Adam Smith (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Smith +52.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Smith +44.9 and Smith +59.6. Incumbent: Adam Smith (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+42.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works