Jim Costa vs. Kyle Kirkland polls and 2026 forecast (California's 21st District)
Our forecast gives Jim Costa (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Costa +17.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Costa +10.3 and Costa +25.0. Incumbent: Jim Costa (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+6.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works