Mark DeSaulnier vs. Jeff Frese polls and 2026 forecast (California's 10th District)
Our forecast gives Mark DeSaulnier (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: DeSaulnier +42.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between DeSaulnier +34.8 and DeSaulnier +49.4. Incumbent: Mark DeSaulnier (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+34.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works