Teresa Leger Fernández vs. Martin Zamora polls and 2026 forecast (New Mexico's 3rd District)
Our forecast gives Teresa Leger Fernández (D) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Fernández +14.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Fernández +8.0 and Fernández +21.0. Polling average: Fernández +13.8 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Teresa Leger Fernandez. 2024 presidential result here: D+5.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works