Nancy Mannion vs. Lloyd Smucker polls and 2026 forecast (Pennsylvania's 11th District)
Our forecast gives Lloyd Smucker (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Smucker +16.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Smucker +24.2 and Smucker +9.6. Incumbent: Lloyd Smucker (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+21.6.
House forecast · How the forecast works