Marquette Greene-Scott vs. Trever Nehls polls and 2026 forecast (Texas's 22nd District)
Our forecast gives Trever Nehls (R) a 98% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Nehls +15.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Nehls +24.3 and Nehls +7.5. Incumbent: Troy Nehls. 2024 presidential result here: R+22.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works