Shannon Taylor vs. Rob Wittman polls and 2026 forecast (Virginia's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Rob Wittman (R) a 55% chance of winning (rating: Toss-up), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Wittman +0.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Wittman +6.5 and Taylor +5.2. Polling average: Taylor +2.1 across 3 polls. Incumbent: Rob Wittman (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+5.0.
House forecast · How the forecast works