Marie Gluesenkamp Perez vs. John Braun polls and 2026 forecast (Washington's 3rd District)
Our forecast gives Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) a 90% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Perez +6.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between even and Perez +12.3. Polling average: Braun +2.2 across 4 polls. Incumbent: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D). 2024 presidential result here: R+3.4.
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