Ned Pillersdorf vs. Hal Rogers polls and 2026 forecast (Kentucky's 5th District)
Our forecast gives Hal Rogers (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Rogers +60.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Rogers +67.9 and Rogers +53.5. Incumbent: Hal Rogers (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+64.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works