Chris Jones vs. French Hill polls and 2026 forecast (Arkansas's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives French Hill (R) a 90% chance of winning (rating: Likely R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Hill +6.1; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Hill +12.1 and Hill +0.1. Polling average: Jones +1.1 across 2 polls. Incumbent: French Hill (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+15.9.
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