Rachel Grage vs. John Rutherford polls and 2026 forecast (Florida's 5th District)
Our forecast gives John Rutherford (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Rutherford +17.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Rutherford +24.4 and Rutherford +9.6. Incumbent: John Rutherford (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+21.7.
House forecast · How the forecast works