Justin Wagner vs. Mike Kelly polls and 2026 forecast (Pennsylvania's 16th District)
Our forecast gives Mike Kelly (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Kelly +18.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Kelly +25.7 and Kelly +10.9. Incumbent: Mike Kelly (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+23.0.
House forecast · How the forecast works