Sarah Trone Garriott vs. Zach Nunn polls and 2026 forecast (Iowa's 3rd District)
Our forecast gives Sarah Trone Garriott (D) an 84% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Garriott +5.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Nunn +1.6 and Garriott +12.8. Polling average: Nunn +0.9 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Zach Nunn (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+4.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works