Nicole Locklin vs. Mario Díaz-Balart polls and 2026 forecast (Florida's 26th District)
Our forecast gives Mario Díaz-Balart (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Díaz-Balart +15.8; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Díaz-Balart +23.3 and Díaz-Balart +8.6. Incumbent: Mario Díaz-Balart (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+18.5.
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