Matthew Dunlap vs. Paul LePage polls and 2026 forecast (Maine's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Matthew Dunlap (D) a 55% chance of winning (rating: Toss-up), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Dunlap +0.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between LePage +5.4 and Dunlap +6.5. Polling average: Dunlap +1.0 across 8 polls. Incumbent: Jared Golden. 2024 presidential result here: R+9.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works