Dani Sterbinsky vs. Paul Gosar polls and 2026 forecast (Arizona's 9th District)
Our forecast gives Paul Gosar (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Gosar +23.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Gosar +31.0 and Gosar +16.2. Incumbent: Paul Gosar (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+31.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works