Kathy Castor vs. Mike Beltran polls and 2026 forecast (Florida's 14th District)
Our forecast gives Kathy Castor (D) an 88% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Castor +6.0; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Beltran +0.5 and Castor +12.3. Polling average: Castor +8.1 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Kathy Castor (D). 2024 presidential result here: R+10.6.
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