Amish Shah vs. Jay Feely polls and 2026 forecast (Arizona's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Amish Shah (D) an 82% chance of winning (rating: Likely D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Shah +4.7; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Feely +2.1 and Shah +11.5. Polling average: Shah +2.4 across 1 poll. Incumbent: David Schweikert. 2024 presidential result here: R+3.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works