Dan Schwartz vs. Andy Harris polls and 2026 forecast (Maryland's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Andy Harris (R) a 99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Harris +15.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Harris +21.8 and Harris +8.9. Polling average: Harris +18.7 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Andy Harris (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+17.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works