Alissa Ellman vs. Claudia Tenney polls and 2026 forecast (New York's 24th District)
Our forecast gives Claudia Tenney (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Tenney +20.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Tenney +27.6 and Tenney +12.9. Incumbent: Claudia Tenney (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+23.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works