Jonny Larsen vs. Mike Kennedy polls and 2026 forecast (Utah's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Mike Kennedy (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Kennedy +28.4; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Kennedy +34.8 and Kennedy +21.8. Polling average: Kennedy +9.4 across 1 poll. Incumbent: Mike Kennedy (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+33.4.
House forecast · How the forecast works