Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint polls and 2026 forecast (Montana's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Aaron Flint (R) a 73% chance of winning (rating: Lean R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Flint +2.9; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Flint +9.3 and Forstag +3.3. Polling average: Flint +1.9 across 6 polls. Incumbent: Ryan Zinke. 2024 presidential result here: R+11.9.
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