Cliff Johnson vs. Trent Kelly polls and 2026 forecast (Mississippi's 1st District)
Our forecast gives Trent Kelly (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Kelly +31.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Kelly +38.8 and Kelly +24.2. Incumbent: Trent Kelly (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+37.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works