Rachel Peace vs. Chris Smith polls and 2026 forecast (New Jersey's 4th District)
Our forecast gives Chris Smith (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Smith +26.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Smith +33.5 and Smith +18.9. Incumbent: Chris Smith (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+30.5.
House forecast · How the forecast works