Ellie Gilbreath vs. Mike Simpson polls and 2026 forecast (Idaho's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Mike Simpson (R) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Simpson +23.2; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Simpson +30.5 and Simpson +15.8. Incumbent: Mike Simpson (R). 2024 presidential result here: R+27.6.
House forecast · How the forecast works