Melissa McDonough vs. Jon Bonck polls and 2026 forecast (Texas's 38th District)
Our forecast gives Jon Bonck (R) a 98% chance of winning (rating: Safe R), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Bonck +14.6; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Bonck +23.0 and Bonck +6.4. Incumbent: Wesley Hunt. 2024 presidential result here: R+21.3.
House forecast · How the forecast works