John Garamendi vs. Rudy Recile polls and 2026 forecast (California's 8th District)
Our forecast gives John Garamendi (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Garamendi +45.3; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Garamendi +37.8 and Garamendi +52.5. Incumbent: John Garamendi (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+35.2.
House forecast · How the forecast works