Jill Tokuda vs. Brenton Awa polls and 2026 forecast (Hawaii's 2nd District)
Our forecast gives Jill Tokuda (D) a >99% chance of winning (rating: Safe D), as of October 16, 2026. Expected margin: Tokuda +39.5; in 80% of simulations the margin falls between Tokuda +32.2 and Tokuda +46.8. Incumbent: Jill Tokuda (D). 2024 presidential result here: D+22.1.
House forecast · How the forecast works